African leaders have swiftly extended their congratulations to Donald Trump following his election, expressing hopes for partnerships that would benefit both sides. However, there remains a general skepticism about whether his presidency will produce significant changes for the continent, home to more than 1.4 billion individuals.
In the aftermath of Trump’s victory, William Ruto of Kenya stated that his nation is “prepared” to enhance its relations with the United States. Meanwhile, Bola Tinubu from Nigeria emphasized that a second term for Trump could lead to an era marked by “sincere, beneficial, and reciprocal” collaboration.
Nevertheless, analysts point out that African nations—previously labeled by Trump as “sh-thole countries”—are unlikely to feature prominently on his agenda.
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Low Priority or Not a Concern?
For quite some time, U.S. foreign policy has largely overlooked Africa, viewing the continent primarily through the lens of countering rivals like Russia and China, according to Charles Ray, chair of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Africa Program.
While President Joe Biden has referred to Africa as a crucial partner, Ray, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2012, notes that little action has followed these statements.
Ray asserts that Africa will likely be “at the very bottom of Trump’s priorities,” with any U.S. initiatives on the continent driven by his “transactional, ego-driven leadership style.”
This sentiment is echoed by many experts, who cite Trump’s “America First” policy.
Murithi Mutiga, program director for Africa at the Crisis Group, describes Trump as “a committed isolationist who clearly aims to withdraw” from various global engagements.
Potential Opportunities in Africa
J. Peter Pham, who previously served as Trump’s special envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes and Sahel regions, suggests that a second Trump administration might seek “win-win” scenarios in Africa.
This could involve renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which allows eligible African nations to access U.S. markets duty-free, as Pham mentioned during a broadcast with Voice of America.
Nonetheless, U.S. lawmakers are increasingly questioning whether African nations are meeting the program’s conditions—or if they are undermining American foreign policy and national security interests, according to Pham.
For instance, South Africa, a major beneficiary of the program, faced accusations from U.S. Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 for allegedly supplying weapons to Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, raising doubts about its neutrality.
Essentially, Pham argues, nations should avoid antagonizing the U.S. in ways that jeopardize their standing in such agreements.
Those who do not comply will likely be viewed as “pariahs,” Ray cautioned.
Health Crises and Rights Issues
One significant concern is that a Trump presidency may lead to cuts in funding, which could critically affect millions of girls and women in Africa who rely on U.S.-funded health programs for reproductive health and choices.
Valentine Damitoni, an 18-year-old mother, emphasizes the dire situation: “Things are already challenging for girls, and it could become disastrous without these services.”
She often visits a clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe, where she receives contraceptives through a U.S.-backed initiative, enabling her to continue her education without the fear of an unintended pregnancy.
Max Primorac, a former acting deputy administrator at USAID, criticized some agency initiatives outlined in Project 2025, a comprehensive document proposed by the conservative Heritage Foundation aimed at reshaping the federal government.
Primorac specifically took issue with USAID programs that focus on “abortion rights, climate change extremism, and combating perceived systemic racism,” suggesting that the proposal aligns closely with Trump’s vision, despite his attempts to distance himself from it.
Kiron Skinner, who led policy planning at the State Department during Trump’s first term, recommends in the document that U.S. efforts in Africa should prioritize “core security, economic growth, and human rights,” rather than imposing “extreme abortion and pro-LGBTQ+ initiatives.”
Shifting Alliances in Africa: The Rise of Russia and China
In the tumultuous Sahel region of Africa, there is an increasing trend of military leaders ousting democratically elected presidents, fueled by anti-Western sentiments that sever long-standing ties with the U.S. and France in favor of new partnerships with Russia.
China, which presents infrastructural loans as mutually beneficial agreements, tends to avoid meddling in the internal politics of the countries it supports. Russia, being the continent’s largest arms supplier, often collaborates closely with Africa’s military regimes.
Both nations, along with the U.S., have expressed significant interest in Africa’s abundant mineral resources.
Mutiga from the Crisis Group observes that the historical perspective of the U.S. and the West viewing Africa primarily as a “problem” to solve, contrasts with how China and others see it—as an “opportunity” to seize.
Will Trump Reverse Biden’s Commitments?
In December, the Biden administration announced an investment of at least $22 billion in Africa and pledged further efforts. In contrast, Trump previously aimed to cut foreign aid funding by up to 30% during his first term.
Analysts worry about the potential impact on essential U.S. projects in health, security, and development under a Trump administration, especially given the rising hunger and threats to democracy across the continent.
For many Africans, Trump is perceived as a distant figure with little ability to address their daily challenges.
“Trump is not going to save us from hunger caused by our government,” remarked Isah Mohammed, a fruit vendor in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.
Africa’s Flashpoints: From Western Sahara to Somalia
In Morocco, many celebrated Trump’s election, hoping it would bolster their efforts for international recognition of their sovereignty over the contested Western Sahara region.
“The friend of Morocco is back in the White House,” declared the editorial of Morocco’s Assabah newspaper.
As part of a broader agreement that saw Morocco normalize relations with Israel, Trump altered long-standing U.S. policy by recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty claims before leaving office in 2020.
While Biden has not reversed this decision, he has also not acted on Trump’s commitment to establish a consulate in the disputed area.
The Horn of Africa faces escalating instability due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan and rising tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over a business arrangement involving Somaliland, a breakaway region.
Analyst Rashid Abdi predicts that Trump may reduce funding for Somalia and increase engagement with Somaliland.
What’s Hindering Africa’s Progress? Perhaps It’s Africa Itself
Last year, the G20, a coalition of the world’s leading economies, welcomed the African Union as a permanent member—an important acknowledgment of the continent’s diverse nations, a move Biden described as “long overdue.”
However, despite this advancement on the international stage, critics argue that the African Union and its leadership have fallen short of expectations, struggling to clearly articulate their collective interests and demands.
“The question often revolves around what Washington will do, but the more pertinent inquiry is: what are Africa’s interests?” stated Mutiga from the Crisis Group.
“In an era defined by transactional global relations, if Africa cannot assert its own priorities, U.S. interests in the continent will continue to be shaped by its geopolitical competition with rivals,” he added.
—Chinedu Asadu reported from Abuja, Nigeria. Associated Press reporters Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe, and Sam Metz in Rabat, Morocco, contributed to this report.
