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The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House has stirred anxiety in many nations, prompting them to reassess their positions with the United States. However, India seems to be embracing this shift, which could potentially empower nationalist leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
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“I understand that many countries are feeling uneasy about the U.S. right now, and we must acknowledge that,” stated India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar over the weekend. Yet, he emphasized that India is “not among them.” He highlighted that a call from Modi was “one of the first three calls” that President-elect Trump received.
Experts suggest that a second term for Trump could work in New Delhi’s favor, especially as Modi aims to redefine India’s ties with the West following tensions over India’s stance on Russia and its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Modi has faced criticism for perceived democratic backsliding within India.
“Trump’s re-election indicates that the policies causing friction between India and the West will likely no longer be a concern for Washington,” remarked Michael Kugelman, South Asia director at the Wilson Center.
While potential conflicts could arise regarding trade, immigration, and climate goals, Kugelman believes that “Trump’s return will generally enhance India’s relations with the West, particularly with the United States.”
Modi has positioned India as an emerging global power with a rapidly expanding economy capable of countering China. Nonetheless, critics argue that his authoritarian approach and the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party have exacerbated divisions within the country, marginalizing minorities and undermining freedoms of speech and the press.
During President Joe Biden’s state visit to India last year, he faced pressure from activists to address Modi’s human rights record, yet the two leaders still announced new defense and technology agreements.
Such human rights concerns are unlikely to be a priority for Trump, according to Uday Chandra, a South Asia and foreign policy expert. “From India’s perspective, he represents a refreshing change… he approaches everything in a more transactional manner.”
Trump’s admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin may lead him to be more sympathetic towards India’s longstanding partnership with Moscow, which includes significant purchases of Russian oil and a reluctance to take sides in the Ukraine conflict. “This has been a significant issue in India-U.S. relations recently, but I doubt it will be a concern with Trump at the helm,” Chandra added.
Trade remains a contentious topic. During his first term, Trump openly criticized India as the “tariff king” over disputes related to agricultural products, Harley Davidson motorcycles, and medical devices. In 2019, he revoked India’s special trade status, prompting India to impose tariffs on several American goods.
This time around, Trump is likely to propose a “universal” import tax of either 10% or 20% and raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 60%, which will certainly affect India, its second-largest trading partner.
“New Delhi will need to do more than just adjust its policies to meet Trump’s focus on fair trade,” cautioned C Rajamohan, a professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore.
Immigration may also become a contentious issue if Trump seeks to limit skilled migration. Indians have historically been a significant demographic applying for H-1B work visas, but Trump has previously criticized the program as “very bad” and “unfair” to American workers.
Progress on climate initiatives could face setbacks as well.
“India and the U.S. have made substantial strides in this area over the past four years, but this could unravel under a Trump administration, which tends to align more closely with fossil fuel interests than green technologies,” noted Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Both Trump and Modi share strongman characteristics, rely on fervent support bases, and have intensified polarization to secure votes. Unlike liberal leaders in the West, Trump does not consider Modi’s domestic policies problematic or even relevant, Kugelman pointed out.
“They are both passionate nationalists devoted to strengthening their nations both at home and on the global stage,” he added.
Analysts have also observed the personal rapport between the two leaders. During Trump’s visit to India in 2020, Modi hosted him at a grand event in the largest cricket stadium in the world.
The previous year, Trump held a large rally in Texas to support Modi, likening him to Elvis Presley for his ability to draw crowds. In a recent congratulatory message on X, Modi shared images of the two leaders embracing, smiling, and holding hands.
“There’s a strong camaraderie between the two,” said Chandra. “They are also united by a common perspective—that we are living in a post-liberal world, and that liberalism as a guiding principle for global politics is becoming obsolete. This sentiment resonates in both India and America.”
—Reported from New Delhi.
