Growing up in Miami within a community of Cuban exiles who escaped the turmoil of Fidel Castro’s regime, Senator Marco Rubio cultivated a strong aversion to communism. As he steps into the role of President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Rubio is poised to channel that same ideological fervor into reforming U.S. foreign policy in Latin America.
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As the first Latino to hold the position of Secretary of State, Rubio is anticipated to focus heavily on what has often been dismissively labeled as Washington’s backyard.
Serving as the top Republican on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and a longstanding member of the Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio has utilized his extensive knowledge and personal connections to influence U.S. policy in the region for many years.
Following the Cold War, Latin America gradually slipped from the forefront of U.S. foreign policy, even as adversaries like Russia, Iran, and especially China made significant inroads. If confirmed, Rubio is expected to rectify this oversight.
However, Rubio’s hardline stance on national security, support for Trump’s mass deportation policies, and tendency towards polarizing language could alienate some U.S. allies in the region who are hesitant to align with the incoming President’s America First approach.
“Traditionally, Latin American policy is left to lower-ranking officials,” noted Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at Chatham House in London. “But Rubio’s instincts are sharply attuned to the region. He will be actively engaged, and governments will need to adopt a more collaborative stance in their relations with the U.S. to strengthen ties.”
Through a spokeswoman, Rubio refrained from commenting on his foreign policy objectives.
Nevertheless, his perspectives on Latin America are widely recognized and starkly contrast with the Biden administration’s emphasis on multilateral dialogue and diplomacy with critics of the U.S.
Following Trump’s lead, Rubio’s primary focus in the region is likely to center on Mexico, particularly regarding trade, drug trafficking, and immigration. Having once supported bipartisan reforms granting undocumented migrants a pathway to citizenship, Rubio shifted to become a staunch advocate for enhanced border security and mass deportations during Trump’s initial term.
Rubio has remained relatively silent about the newly elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum but was an outspoken critic of her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador, who notably skipped the U.S.-organized Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in favor of a meeting with leftist leaders in Cuba.
Rubio accused López Obrador of succumbing to drug cartels and acting as an “apologist for tyranny” in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, to which the Mexican President retorted by labeling Rubio a “racist.”
Despite this diplomatic snub, López Obrador was welcomed by President Joe Biden at the White House just three weeks later, where he was described as a “friend” and “partner.”
“That kind of reception will be a thing of the past under Rubio,” Sabatini remarked. “He closely monitors who aligns with his policy preferences.”
Now 53, Rubio has long been a trusted advisor to Trump on Latin American issues, actively promoting his stringent agenda. He has been a vocal critic of Russian and Chinese influence in the region and is anticipated to impose consequences on countries that align with America’s geopolitical adversaries or fail to support Israel.
When Trump canceled his inaugural Latin America visit in 2018, Rubio stepped in, engaging with leaders from countries such as Argentina and Haiti at the Summit of the Americas in Peru.
“No one in the U.S. Senate possesses his level of familiarity and expertise regarding Latin America,” stated Carlos Trujillo, a close associate of Rubio and former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. “He has cultivated personal relationships with numerous officials over decades and has vetted nearly every U.S. ambassador assigned to the region, which is a significant advantage.”
Among those enthusiastic about collaborating with Rubio is Argentina’s President Javier Milei, whose brash demeanor and transformation from a television personality to a far-right politician draws parallels to Trump.
Another ally is El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who has been praised by Rubio for his stringent measures against gang violence that had previously driven millions of Salvadoran migrants to the U.S.
Rubio has not hesitated to leverage his influence to confront leftist leaders he perceives as threats to U.S. national security interests. Even moderates who have been democratically elected have not escaped his criticism. Earlier this year, he condemned Chilean President Gabriel Boric, known for his critiques of Israel’s actions in Gaza, for allegedly providing a safe haven for Hezbollah financiers, dubbing him “one of the leading anti-Israel voices in Latin America.”
In 2023, he labeled Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former member of the M-19 guerrilla group, a “dangerous” choice for a nation that has long been a key U.S. ally in the fight against drugs.
However, it is Venezuela where Rubio has made his most significant impact.
Shortly after Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, Rubio facilitated a visit for the wife of prominent Venezuelan dissident Leopoldo Lopez to the White House. This meeting, highlighted by a photo of a smiling Trump and Rubio flanking the imprisoned activist’s wife, propelled Venezuela to the forefront of U.S. foreign policy, marking a departure from previous administrations’ more distant approach to the nation’s challenges.
Over the following two years, Trump imposed severe oil sanctions on Venezuela, accused numerous officials of corruption, and broached the topic of a “military option” to oust President Nicolás Maduro. By 2019, during Rubio’s peak influence, the U.S. formally recognized National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader.
However, this aggressive stance—popular among exiles in South Florida—eventually became a liability for Trump, who later acknowledged that he had overestimated the opposition. In strengthening Maduro’s position, it also opened the door for increased Russian, Chinese, and Iranian involvement in Venezuela, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis that caused millions to flee, many seeking refuge in the U.S.
Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, speculates that Trump may adopt a more lenient approach towards Maduro this time, even with Rubio at the helm of the State Department, potentially continuing the engagement and sanctions relief strategy initiated by the Biden administration.
“Trump might start treating Maduro similarly to other global strongmen, paying less heed to the Cuban-American exile community in Florida,” Shifter suggested.
Trujillo believes that Rubio’s reputation for frankness will benefit him in negotiations with both allies and adversaries, even if he must temper his occasionally fiery rhetoric.
“He’ll have to adopt a different approach now, but he’s an exceptional negotiator, and I’m confident he will meet the challenge,” Trujillo stated.
With Trump appointing another vocal critic of Maduro, Representative Michael Waltz from Florida, as national security adviser, Trujillo remarked that Maduro and his authoritarian allies in Cuba and Nicaragua should be concerned.
Thus far, officials in Venezuela and Cuba, who frequently denounce the U.S. on social media, have remained largely silent regarding Rubio’s nomination and have not commented extensively on Trump’s election.
“There exists an opportunity for negotiation, but it must be approached in good faith,” Trujillo said. “Failure to do so will lead to repercussions.”
—Goodman reported from Miami. Contributions to this report were made by Mark Stevenson and Maria Verza in Mexico City, as well as Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires.
